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How Are Expected Goals Calculated? As explained in our previous expected goals guide, the variables include shot angle, type of assist, distance from goal, was it a header? Was it a big chance? Did it happen in open play? For example, if a shot is closer to the goal, then you would expect xG to be higher; this is indeed the case. So, if you're a football bettor, you can use a team's xG to analyze their form based on past performances instead of the results. However, this also doesn't have to be the case, as some football teams have consistently outperformed their xG models for a number of seasons. In addition, xG data can be invalidated for several reasons, depending on how a match turns out. This can reduce their xG but doesn't mean they aren't performing well, especially if they've managed to hold it until the end. Just like other stats or metrics, it's best used in context alongside tactical or video analysis. faux saint laurent bagimitation louis bags
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